Ure Goes Short: Market to Drop

It looks to me like the “K3” formation in the markets may have completed yesterday with that smoking Dow rally which left the headline average 160 points higher by the close. But on inspection, around mid morning (the trade chit says I went short (SDOW Executed @ $24.2765 10/18/17 | 10:41 AM ET), it looked to me like we had gotten to a tradable high.  We begin today 50% short.  (This is not financial advice, because if you try to parallel-trade us, you’ll be a day late and many dollars shy – … Continue reading

Coping: A EQ Note from Tehachapi

You remember my deflationist pal Jas Jain?  The fellow who went long bonds from the late 1990’s and has done very well as the Long Wave has done well for him? Well, he looks at things a little differently than most – perhaps because as a multiple-patent holder in DSP, you have to think new and innovative thoughts. Regardless, he sent me a note about Earthquakes.  And since Elaine still remembers the 1952 Tehachapi earthquake, a bit of a heads up is in order: (Continues below)   If you were … Continue reading

Why Reagan Tax Cuts Won’t Work Now

A subscriber asked a damn fine question in response to one of our columns.  “I’m confused. Reagan overcame the worst economy with the highest interest rates I have seen in my lifetime. And started the biggest economic boom I have seen in my lifetime. Reaganomics worked extremely well for a very long time! “ No, Reagan was LUCKY.  For reasons we will explain this morning.   After a few headlines, charts, and coffee… More for Subscribers       ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!       |||   Subscriber Help Center … Continue reading

Toppish?

We have an idea what to expect in coming years, thanks to the presidency of Herbert Hoover.  Oftentimes, we have drawn parallels between Donald Trump and Hoover – because both face transitions from runaway serial bubbles to “normalcy” – and the transitions include long wave economic cycle lows. We are likely, in my view, just coming to the (delayed) Hooverian Transit. The “transit” is the danger period when long-term interest rates begin to rise while the economy is too fragile to absorb any additional debt.  Like now. (Continues below)   … Continue reading

Coping: Mailbag and Aging Notes

We get a ton of email around here – and there are some that offer outstanding ideas.  Take, for example, this note from a long-time Peoplenomics subscriber who sent us this: “Wow, George! This year you have given me two fundamentally useful recipes for organizing life. The first was the article about aircraft mechanics organizing tools and gear, then rolling carts around to pick up stuff for a given project. (Continues Below)   “I took the idea a step further. Bought a bunch of the rolling wire shelf carts, perhaps … Continue reading

The Games of Options Week

No telling for sure what will happen this week, but we have some benchmarks we’d sure like to see. For one, with Bitcoin at $5,700+ this morning, we would like to see it hit the upper target we put in Saturday’s report.  That would be especially cool if it happened within a day or two of the stock market hitting new all-time highs. As subscribers know, this week is when we’re expecting K3 in our work and that might mean a sizeable decline next week after slugging out options Thursday … Continue reading

Coping: With the End of “Marriage?”

No, Elaine and I aren’t splitting the sheets…we’re just as (or more) in love & lust than when we got hitched almost 18-years back.  But Marriage is over and Mergers have replaced marriage globally. That’s what we got to talking about this weekend:  The whole notion of marriage going by the wayside.  So, maybe in our ever-so-on-point view of the world, we ought to retire the word “marriage” because it is quickly sliding from the “Applicable” column to the “Archaic” side of Language. Let’s start with a definition… (Continues below)   … Continue reading

Restyling Thought Processes; Bitcoin Outlook

A couple of interesting topics this morning.  The first ought to really be considered an “application note” from the manufacturers of your brain.  That would be biology, parents, schools, and relationships.  All brought up because I’m knee-deep in the new genre of self-help books arriving. The Bitcoin outlook?  More a mechanistic outlook, based on Elliott wave theory and trend channels.  Depending on your inclination, either one of them could be profitable. More for Subscribers       ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!       |||   Subscriber Help Center … Continue reading

CPI, Retail, and An Outlook

No point wading through all the data first:  After all, most folks these days “…don’t let the facts get in the way of their opinions…”  We’re good with that.  Who needs facts when we have social? Here’s what I think the market should do in simple 1-2-3 fashion (but if it doesn’t, don’t whine to me, this is an opinion, not advice):  1)The market should drop a bit today because ‘hot money’ likes to keep time-risk to a minimum.  2) Markets should rise next Monday and maybe carry into Tuesday.  Hot … Continue reading